AUDUSD Holding Near Support Amid Mixed Fundamentals

Summary – AUDUSD

• Current Price Range: ~0.6450–0.6480
• Resistance: 0.6507–0.6528 (recent swing highs)
• Support: 0.6430–0.6451 (key demand zone)

AUDUSD is hovering near the lower end of its recent range, with support around 0.6430 holding for now. A break below could expose deeper losses toward 0.6400 and 0.6350. Upside moves will likely face selling pressure at 0.6507–0.6528, a key resistance zone. A clean break above this range could trigger momentum-driven buying.

Fundamental Factors Affecting AUDUSD

1. Australia – Inflation & RBA Outlook
   • Q1 CPI (2.4%) and trimmed mean (2.9%) are within the RBA's 2–3% target range, suggesting inflation is moderating.
   • The February rate cut to 4.10% (first in 4+ years) kicked off a gradual easing cycle.
   • Another 25bp cut is fully priced for May, but the tight labor market and stable wages allow the RBA to ease cautiously.
2. United States – Fed & USD Dynamics
   • The Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50% on May 7, maintaining a data-dependent stance.
   • April payrolls surprised to the upside (+177k), reinforcing Fed caution around cuts.
   • Persistent tariff-related uncertainty and solid economic data support the USD, especially if risk appetite wanes.
3. China & Commodity Flows – Soft Demand Weighing on AUD
   • Iron ore ($100/t) and coking coal ($186/t), Australia's top exports, have seen sluggish Chinese demand in Q1.
   • Beijing's stimulus efforts (rate and RRR cuts) could help over time, but haven't sparked strong buying yet.
   • Any improvement in China's demand or broader risk-on sentiment could lift the AUD.

Key Takeaway for Traders

The AUDUSD short-term outlook is cautious, with a clear bias toward the downside unless 0.6528 resistance is reclaimed. The pair is caught between RBA-led easing and the Fed's steady hand, while commodity demand and China's data remain wildcards.

AUDUSD – H4 Timeframe

The double bullish break of the structure on the 4-hour timeframe chart of AUDUSD sets a precedent for bullish sentiment. Considering the confluence of the trendline support and the FVG behind the induced wick, we have reason to conclude in favor of a bullish sentiment.

AUDUSD – H2 Timeframe

The 2-hour timeframe chart of AUDUSD presents a few confluences, including the moving average support, trendline support, and the SBR pattern. There is also a hidden SBR pattern – albeit, very conspicuous.

Analyst's Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target- 0.65130

Invalidation- 0.63508

CONCLUSION

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