Key consensus estimates
Expected revenue: between $22.3 and $22.6 billion
Earnings per share (EPS): between $0.39 and $0.42, below last year’s $0.52
Deliveries: around 384,000 vehicles, a 13.5% year-over-year drop
Regulatory credits: declining, could fall by more than $2.2 billion by 2026
What is the market watching?
Drop in sales
This quarter marks the lowest deliveries since the COVID period, which could weigh on both revenue and margins.
Margin pressure
Aggressive discounts, especially on the Model Y, are compressing unit profitability.
Declining credits
Tesla can no longer rely on regulatory credit revenues, which used to inflate its bottom line.
Robotaxi and AI expectations
Elon Musk may reveal new details on the Austin-based robotaxi project, seen as crucial to justify Tesla’s high valuation.
Is Tesla overvalued?
It currently trades near $330 USD, with a forward P/E of 52x earnings.
Even after the decline from a 136x multiple, it still trades well above other major tech firms.
The promise of robotaxis, AI, and cheaper models is already partially priced in.
What are analysts saying?
| Firm | Price Target | View |
| Wedbush | $500 | Very bullish (robotaxi and AI) |
| Morgan Stanley | $500 | Long-term bet on disruption |
| RBC Capital | $320 | Neutral, sees regulatory risks |
| Wells Fargo | $120 | Very bearish, margin doubts |
Technical analysis
Triangle pattern with resistance zones at 357.60 – 367.30 and support levels at 288.74 – 270.00.
A weak report could break the lower edge of the triangle and push the price toward 300 – 288.
A strong report with upbeat guidance may lift the stock toward 360 – 370, or higher if robotaxi news surprises.
Conclusion
Tesla reports at a delicate moment: falling sales, margin pressure, and a demanding valuation.
However, the market may remain patient if Musk offers clear signs of disruptive growth in AI or new models.
Everything will depend not just on the numbers, but on what Elon Musk says tonight.
