The USDCHF pair continues to drift lower, hovering near 0.812 as broad US dollar weakness and renewed safe-haven flows into the Swiss franc drive the pair toward multi-year lows. The greenback has shed roughly 10% year-to-date, pressured by mounting fiscal imbalances, persistent trade policy uncertainty, and fading confidence in the dollar's traditional safe-haven role. As risk appetite thins, the franc has re-emerged as a reliable refuge, reinforcing its upward momentum.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently slashed its policy rate to zero to combat negative inflation and rein in franc strength. However, with limited ammunition left and little sign of coordinated support from the Fed, analysts remain skeptical about the SNB's ability to weaken the currency significantly through unilateral intervention.
1. Safe-haven demand & dollar retreat
USDCHF trades near 0.812, pressured by a ~10% drop in the US dollar this year amid growing fiscal concerns, tariff uncertainty, and weak investor confidence in the dollar's safe-haven status. The franc has gained as markets seek refuge, reinforcing CHF strength.
2. SNB easing & FX intervention risks
The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate to zero in June due to negative inflation and franc strength. While further cuts or direct intervention remain possible, the SNB's ability to stem franc appreciation is limited without coordinated action with the Fed.
3. Technical levels & positioning
Technically, USDCHF is in oversold territory. Short-term rebounds may run into resistance at 0.8200, followed by 0.8060–0.8100. A break below 0.8000 could open the way to 0.7920–0.7870.
Summary
USDCHF remains vulnerable as dollar pressure and franc safe-haven demand weigh. Unless SNB intervention gains traction or US dollar sentiment reverses, further downside remains likely, with 0.8000 and 0.7920 as key monitoring levels.
USDCHF – D1 Timeframe
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On this USDCHF Daily chart:
Price rallied aggressively into a strong supply zone between 0.8170 and 0.8200 after forming a series of higher lows, which is seen as a classic ascending triangle pattern.
However, the pair was rejected on the first touch of the supply zone, forming a bearish candle just below the 200-period moving average (red line), which continues to slope downward, confirming the dominant downtrend.
Also visible is a previous break of structure (BOS) near 0.8085, where sellers previously gained control. Price has now returned to that region.
This setup signals a potential bearish continuation, targeting the rising trendline support near the 0.7940–0.7960 area.
My Trading Plan:
I'll consider a short trade if price is below the 0.8200 resistance and the rejection is confirmed with a second bearish daily candle.
Direction- Bullish
Target- 88.818
Invalidation- 87.374
CONCLUSION
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