BTCUSD is holding in the $116,000–$117,000 range after recently notching fresh all-time highs above $118,000, powered by unprecedented institutional demand. Over $51 billion has poured into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025, including a record $1.18 billion single-day inflow that triggered a short squeeze and sharp rally. Analysts at Citi highlight that ETF flows have now become the dominant short-term driver of Bitcoin’s price action.
Regulatory momentum continues to boost sentiment, with the US administration greenlighting Bitcoin in 401(k) retirement plans, advancing stablecoin legislation, and proposing a strategic national Bitcoin reserve. These developments have strengthened institutional conviction and cemented Bitcoin’s role as a mainstream financial asset.
Technically, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase described as a “compressed spring,” with liquidity building ahead of the next directional move. Immediate support lies in the $114K—$116K band, while resistance is set between $118K—$120K. A decisive breakout above $120K could trigger the next leg higher—potentially mirroring past 50% rallies—while a drop below $114K would raise the risk of a deeper correction.
Traders are monitoring ETF flow data, macro risk sentiment, and upcoming US policy signals to gauge whether the current pause will lead to another record run or a near-term pullback.
1. ETF Inflows & Institutional Demand
Bitcoin has been reaching new all-time highs—recently surpassing $118,000—driven primarily by massive ETF inflows. Over $51 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025, including a record $1.18 billion in a single day, which triggered a short squeeze and spurred a sharp rally. Citi emphasizes that ETF flows are now the most critical driver of short-term BTC performance.
2. Regulatory Tailwinds & Mainstream Adoption
The regulatory environment has become notably crypto-friendly. The US administration has enabled Bitcoin inclusion in 401(k) retirement accounts, advanced stablecoin legislation, and proposed a strategic US Bitcoin reserve, boosting institutional confidence and strategic demand.
3. Technical Signals & Market Structure
Bitcoin is consolidating around $116,000–$117,000, described by analysts as a “compressed spring” poised for the next move. This phase represents a liquidity sweep and shakeout before a potential breakout, with key levels around $114K—$116K in focus. Recent bullish patterns echo setups that preceded 50% rallies.
Summary
BTCUSD remains propelled by institutional ETF inflows and policy clarity, showing strong adoption-based fundamentals. Technical consolidation near current levels suggests a potential springboard into the next leg higher, assuming continued macro support. Key levels to monitor: a breakout above $118K—$120K for upside or a fall below $114K—$116K for potential correction.
BTCUSD H3 Timeframe
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On this BTCUSD H3 chart:
Price has been trading within a broad contracting triangle, with lower highs and higher lows squeezing price action into a tighter range. Recently, BTCUSD broke below the ascending trendline support, confirming bearish pressure.
A sharp drop followed, reaching the 0.0 Fibonacci extension of the most recent swing, before rebounding toward the 61.8%–78.6% retracement zone — a key supply area under the descending trendline resistance.
The current rebound has stalled at the 78.6% Fib retracement, which aligns with prior structure resistance and the triangle’s upper boundary, signaling a potential bearish rejection zone.
Also notable is a prior break of structure (BOS) marked by the horizontal arrow, where sellers gained control. Price is now retesting that region from below.
This setup suggests a possible continuation lower, with the next key downside target at the strong demand zone around 110,900–111,000, which also aligns with prior major lows.
Direction- Bearish
Target-111877.35
Invalidation- 120311.43
CONCLUSION
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