Aussie Dollar Firms After RBA Holds Rates; Fed Minutes Eyed for Next Move

The Australian dollar strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by holding its policy rate steady at 3.85% in a narrow 6–3 vote on July 8. While inflation shows signs of easing, the central bank stressed it remains data-dependent, lifting the Aussie by roughly 0.8% as traders trimmed bets on near-term easing.

Adding to the tailwind, the U.S. dollar weakened further under pressure from tariff uncertainty and persistent debt concerns, offering broader support to AUD crosses. However, gains may be tempered as investors await the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes (due June 17–18), which are expected to underline policymakers’ cautious stance on inflation and rate cuts.

Technically, AUDUSD has rebounded off its 50‑day EMA near 0.6475 and is now testing the 200‑day EMA around 0.6550. Resistance sits at 0.6550–0.6580, with support around 0.6470–0.6500.

The pair will likely remain range-bound between 0.6470 and 0.6550 in the near term. A break above resistance could see AUDUSD test 0.6600 and beyond, while a drop below support risks a slide toward 0.6400. Traders will look to Fed minutes, core U.S. economic data, and upcoming RBA guidance in August for fresh directional cues.

AUDUSD H4 Timeframe

The price action on the 4-hour timeframe chart of AUDUSD has reached a critical rally-base-drop supply zone near the 76% Fibonacci retracement level, and may begin a descent towards the recent low. This sentiment is supported by the twin resistance trendlines, the supply zone, and the induced high already swept. Should the bearish move indeed commence, the recent low is the target.

Direction: Bearish

Target- 0.64852

Invalidation- 0.65929

CONCLUSION

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